Lionel Messi likelier than Cristiano Ronaldo to score -- projection

Messi or Ronaldo? ESPN FC TV panelists discuss the game's greatest individual rivalry.

Current goals total in La Liga: Ronaldo 5-3 Messi
After a weekend of contrasting fortunes, Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo return to action on Wednesday. Messi and Barcelona visit Celta Vigo while Ronaldo and Real Madrid are also away, at Athletic Bilbao.
ESPN's projection model, which predicts how the rivals will fare each week and over the whole season in La Liga, has run the numbers and Messi is tipped as the likelier to score.

In last season's corresponding fixture, Messi did not score at Celta Vigo and Ronaldo did not score at Athletic Bilbao.

2015-16 total goals projection
Despite Messi closing the gap by two goals last weekend, Ronaldo remains the favourite to win the head-to-head battle.

Between them, Ronaldo and Messi have won the past six Pichichi awards, which is given to the leading scorer in La Liga.

What do you think?
We want your input! Vote in the poll and let us know who you think will score the most goals this season, using the hashtag #ESPNFCMessiRonaldo.

Who will score more La Liga goals this season?

Lionel Messi

Cristiano Ronaldo

2015-16 milestone projection
Both men are equally likely to get to 25 goals but Ronaldo is the favourite in every category beyond that mark.

Messi has 289 career Liga goals. Ronaldo has 230.

How does the projection model work?
Here's a brief explanation from its creator, ESPN Stats & Information analytics specialist Zach Bradshaw:
"These projections account for the historical performance (goals scored and minutes played) of the two players since 2010, strength of opposing defences faced (measured by SPI defensive rating), game location, and the potential for injury or missing games. Based on these inputs, the predictor will estimate the chance of each player scoring any number of goals for each remaining game. From this, we can project the total number of goals scored, hat tricks, and the chance of each player accruing more goals than the other over the course of the entire Liga season."